NCAA 2017 First Round Forecast

Storm’s a comin’:

Upset Watch

Dayton (7) vs Wichita State (10) — Wichita State at 56% with a 26% upset risk. Wichita State’s edge in three point shooting and defense will give them this game. They appear to be significantly underrated.

Michigan (7) vs Oklahoma State (10) — Michigan at 52% with a 67% upset risk. Michigan’s weak defense is likely give away this game. Despite their poor shooting, Oklahoma State’s offensive rebounding will give them enough second chance points to ensure it stays that way.

Wisconsin (8) vs Virginia Tech (9) — Virginia Tech at 53% with a 54% upset risk. Wisconsin does not shoot well, but they do not turn the ball over and they are good at reducing their opponents’ field goal shooting. Virginia Tech shoots at a 9 in both field goals and three pointers, but do not play good defense. The model predicts that Virginia Tech’s shooting not be enough to generate the upset.

Miami (FL) (8) vs Michigan State (9) — Miami at 53% with a 51% upset risk. Michigan State hurt bracketologists last year in a shocking loss to Middle Tennessee, but their defensive stats may give them enough of an edge to upset Miami.

Minnesota (5) vs Middle Tennessee (12) — Minnesota at 52% with a 51% upset risk. Minnesota has an excellent defense, but their inability to shoot might allow Middle Tennessee to take over the game. After last year, bracketologists have learned to underestimate Middle Tennessee at their peril.

Close Games

Minnesota (5) vs Middle Tennessee (12) — Minnesota at 52% with a 51% upset risk. Minnesota has an excellent defense, but their inability to shoot might allow Middle Tennessee to take over the game. After last year, bracketologists have learned that they underestimate Middle Tennessee at their peril.

South Carolina (7) vs Marquette (10) — South Carolina at 51% with a 47% upset risk. South Carolina’s abysmal shooting may allow Marquette to steal this one. However, SC’s defense will make this a close game. Marquette has excellent shooting, but poor defense. South Carolina has a razor thin edge.

Miami (FL) (8) vs Michigan State (9) — Miami at 53% with a 51% upset risk. Michigan State hurt bracketologists last year in a shocking loss to Middle Tennessee, but their defensive stats may give them enough of an edge to upset Miami.

 

 

 

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