Xavier vs Gonzaga – Gonzaga at 60% with a 9% chance of reversal. However, Xavier has punched above its weight this whole tournament and Gonzaga has underperformed. This may be a closer game than can be accounted for statistically.
Oregon vs Kansas – Kansas at 51% with a 51% chance of reversal. This is a coin toss, but Oregon’s defense and Kansas’s penchant for turnovers will weight the coin in Oregon’s favor. Kansas could still win if they are able to force Oregon to settle for outside shots.
South Carolina vs Florida – Florida at 53% with a 43% chance of reversal. South Carolina will have to shoot lights out for them to pull this off. Florida’s defense makes this unlikely. South Carolina beat Florida 57-53 in January, but Florida took revenge in February with a 81-66 win.
Kentucky vs North Carolina – Kentucky at 51% with a 65% chance of reversal. This will be a close game against similar teams. North Carolina is capable of outplaying Kentucky. However, when these teams last played on Dec. 17, 2016, Kentucky beat North Carolina 103-100.